Teritorializace volební podpory v expertních modelech volební predikce v Kanadě a Spojeném království

Territorialization of the electoral support in expert models of electoral prediction in Canada and the United Kingdom

Vít Šimral
(179033@mail.muni.cz)

Abstract

The paper comments upon the recent changes in the election forecasting models in Canada and the United Kingdom. Firstly, several common features of expert forecasting models are discussed and the Cube rule introduced. Secondly, the article points at the national modifications of forecasting models in the UK and Canada respectively and shows their implications for the general trend in electoral forecasting. In conclusion, three observations on a possible development in the field are made.

Keywords

electoral prediction, FPTP, Canada, United Kingdom, territorialization, expert models

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