Je možné využít Taageperova přístupu ke studiu účinků volebních systémů na jiné než národní úrovni voleb?[1]

Pavel Maškarinec, Roman Chytilek

Abstract: This article tries to show the possibilities of application Rein Taagepera’s predictive logic for predicting the number and magnitude of political parties on the sub-state level. Specifically, it seeks to explore the possibilities of predictions of three variables characterizing party systems at the regional level in Poland and Holland - number of seat-winning parties, seat share of the largest party, and effective number of parties. Results of research show that the most predicted values of these variables are outside the limits, that allow acceptance of the model. Results also show that the biggest problem of Taagepera’s concept is in setting of the one of the three indispensable features of the electoral systems - seat allocation  formula, or more precisely ‘formula exponent’. Our findings suggest that if we seek to adjust the value of formula, we would have to do this not only for each particular electoral system, according to its specific features, but also for each of variables, because one central value of the exponent would likely work for for individual variables in a different direction. The fact that it is probably not possible to find a one quantitative value for exponent of the seat allocation formula, which could be used for a larger group of countries, or even in the analysis within one country (on regional level), thus significantly reduces the overall predictive capacity of the Taagepera’s approach.

Keywords: electoral systems, elections, predicting the number and magnitude of political parties, simple electoral systems, party systems, seat product, number of seat-winning parties, seat share of the largest party, effective number of parties

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[1] Tento text vznikl v rámci výzkumného záměru Politické strany a reprezentace zájmů v soudobých evropských demokraciích (kód MSM 002162407).