Je volební chování v prvním kole senátních voleb ovlivněno vlastnostmi kandidátů?

Martin Kreidl (kreidl@kss_zcu_cz)

Voting behavior in the elections to the higher chamber of the Czech parliament (the Senate) is a rather unexplored phenomenon. This probably results from a variety of substantive as well as methodological reasons. Yet, there are many unanswered theoretical questions and untested hypotheses pertaining precisely to this type of vote. Senate elections are highly personalized – there is one candidate nominated by each major party in a district, or there are independent candidates. However, we are rather uninformed if (and to what degree) candidate’s individual characteristics (age, gender, education and academic qualifications, place of residence) increase their odds of electoral success. I argue that many methodological obstacles in studying senate elections may be overcome by using a discrete-choice model (conditional logit model). I illustrate its application using data from a panel survey conducted before and after the first senate election in the post-socialist Czech Republic in 1996. The analysis reveals that some individual characteristics of candidates do indeed increase their odds of obtaining votes net of party effects. Furthermore, I document that this “ideal candidate profile” differs across socio-demographic groups.

Voting Behavior, Senate Elections, Czech Republic, Conditional Logit Model

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