Vliv generační výměny na pokles volební účasti v ČR mezi lety 1990 až 2010

Lukáš Linek (lukas.linek@soc_cas_cz)

Abstract:

The aim of the paper is to analyze the generational effects in voter turnout in the Czech Republic during the years 1990–2010; and to estimate the effect of generational replacement on turnout decline. Based on the assumptions of both the persistence and impressionable years’ models, this study examines six political generations associated with: the Second World War, building communism, the Prague Spring era, Normalization, post-Velvet Revolution transition and contemporary decline in political trust. This paper utilizes pooled cross-sectional post-election surveys from the Czech Republic from 1990 to 2010 and uses standard cohort analysis approaches: contingency tables, algebraic decomposition and logistic regression modeling. The effect of generations on turnout is moderate and statistically non-significant. The strength of these generational effects steadily decline as the analyses move forward in history toward considering the present generation. Overall, the effect of generational replacement on turnout decline in the Czech Republic has been weak and is estimated to have contributed two percentage points to the decline observed. Because of the declining participation of later cohorts, it is reasonable to expect that the effect of generational replacement will in the future continue to add to turnout decline.

Key words: 

turnout; political generations; cohort analysis; generational replacement

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Poznámka:

Tato studie vznikla na základě podpory Grantové agentury ČR, projekt „Zdroje, povaha a vliv politické informovanosti“ (grant č. P408/12/1474). Autor děkuje oběma recenzentům za cenné připomínky.

 

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