Prelietaví voliči: Volebná volatilita v parlamentných voľbách medzi 2010 a 2012

Pavol Baboš (pavol.babos@uniba_sk)

Darina Malová (darina.malova@uniba_sk

Abstract:

The 2012 parliamentary elections in Slovakia resulted in the single-party government. This is well in line with the fact that Slovak political parties have seemed to form two strong blocks for several years. This paper studies the voting behaviour of the Slovak voters in the 2012 parliamentary elections in regard to the two political blocks. Firstly we explore the voters’ movements across parties between the 2010 and 2012 elections. Secondly, our research asks which socio-economic and demographic characteristics drive the volatility across parties, both within the two blocks as well as between them. We use the exit-poll data and the logistic regression model to estimate the impact of different personal and contextual characteristics on voters‘ decision to change his voting preference. The findings show that Hungarian minority is more than four times more stable in their voting preference than Slovaks. As for parties, Smer-SD and SMK were the most successful in keeping their old voters. On the other hand, SDKU-DS and SaS lost the most of their respective voters. On the individual level the results show that the probability of changing a party preference within a block increases with age, education and the residence size. On the other hand, once young and less educated voters decide to change their party preference, they are more likely to vote for a party from the other block. 

Key words: 

Electoral Volatility, Voting Behaviour, Parliamentary Elections 2012, Slovakia

Stáhnout Stáhnout (2,18 MB)


Poznámka:

Táto štúdia bola podporená grantom Agentúry pre podporu výskumu a vývoja č. APVV-0413-11.

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